A population boost from the number of people settling in this country due to the global economic crisis is eventually expected to be good news for the hard hit construction sector.

Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs said that compared to March 2008, the net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens was little changed, but net departures by New Zealand citizens fell to the lowest level seen in a March month since 2004.

In light of the deep recession and job losses in most of this country's key trading partners, he thought it was likely net migrant inflows would continue to swing back heavily in New Zealand's favour.

He expected that would continue to mainly reflect the impact on flows of departing and, increasingly, arriving New Zealanders.

But weak economies offshore and a low nominal exchange rate would also add to the attractiveness of this country to potential non-New Zealand migrants, Mr Gibbs said.

ASB economist Jane Turner said the recent turnaround in net migration had come from a drop in departures, mostly to Australia but also to Britain, reflecting weakening job prospects in those countries.

She expected that while arrivals had been relatively steady so far, they would see a small pick up, particularly from Britain and the United States. That was because the New Zealand economy, and labour market, was expected to fare comparatively well through the global downturn.

Annual migration inflows were likely to reach 10,000 to 15,000 a year, providing some support to population growth and to cyclically weak areas such as retail spending and housing construction.

- NZPA

Source: NZ Herald (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/)

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